8th January: after the attempted coup in Washington DC, I have added Scenario 14 and Scenario 15
Looking over the water at what’s going on in America these days is fascinating. It’s real ‘pass the popcorn’ stuff, especially since Trump’s phone call to Georgia.
I listen to and read professional American political and legal commentators. They’re the kind of people the British media doesn’t dig. British media seems to prefer their own ‘correspondents’ who, frankly, are just plugging themselves into the same American experts anyway: Seth Abramson, Aaron Rupar, Daniel Dale, Adam Klasfeld, and Brian Klaas to name my most regular.
Lately the scene in the US has taken on a surreal air, it’s almost like a cross between LA Law, The West Wing, and an as-yet-unwritten John Grisham novel. It is, frankly, riveting viewing.
So I thought I’d combine my lack of knowledge of things American with some strategic thinking and put together some scenarios for fun. You know, just jot down a few possibilities that we could revisit in a few months. Just to see how wrong I was. So here we go:
Scenario 1: Trump attends the Biden/Harris inauguration. He vacates the White House. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally
Scenario 2: Trump attends the Biden/Harris inauguration. He vacates the White House. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally
Scenario 3: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He vacates the White House. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally
Scenario 4: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He vacates the White House. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally
Scenario 5: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He refuses to vacate the White House. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally
Scenario 6: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the Whitehouse and bunkers down in one of his US resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally
Scenario 7: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the Whitehouse and bunkers down in one of his US resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally
Scenario 8: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally
Scenario 9: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally
Scenario 10: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally. Trump disappears from his overseas bunker, eventually surfacing in a safe haven from where extradition to the US can’t happen
Scenario 11: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally. Trump disappears from his overseas bunker, eventually surfacing in a safe haven from where extradition to the US can’t happen
Scenario 12: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration does not occur naturally. Trump disappears from his overseas bunker and is never seen/heard of again
Scenario 13: Trump doesn’t attend the Biden/Harris inauguration. He leaves the US and bunkers down in one of his overseas resorts. Transfer of power to the Biden/Harris administration occurs naturally. Trump disappears from his overseas bunker and is never seen/heard of again
Scenario 14: Trump is admitted to Walter Reed NMC where he is detained and diagnosed with a mental breakdown. Subsequently he is declared to be suffering from mental illness. Further medical investigation reveals he has a worsening decline of mental/cognitive abilities owing to advanced dementia. Trump is never charged with any crimes. He retires to his Mar a Lago resort which he never leaves alive
Scenario 15: Despite calls for the 25th and impeachment, Trump’s diminishing powerbase in the Republic Party in the Senate come together privately to help him avoid both. However a secret arrangement is arrived at by which Trump loses all Presidential powers, though he technically remains in office as President. All executive power is transferred to the VP. Only Trump, Pence, and Mitch McConnell will be party to this agreement. This will isolate Trump from the executive, but will keep impeachment and the 25th off the books, both of which would be catastrophic to Trump and the GOP. Pence sees out the remaining term of office *as VP* though acting privately as President pro tem. Later, for Trump, probably during Biden’s inauguration, as per Scenario 14
Each of these scenarios gives rise to a number of sub-scenarios but this is, after all, just a very high-level view of the most obvious ‘could happens’.
It’ll be interesting to see how the first three weeks of January play out.
You’ve missed the most likely one: where Trump gets the locks changed on the White House and then claims squatters rights.
I think that’s covered under Scenario 5?
You’ll have broken the popcorn out, following yesterday’s shenanigans, I’m sure!
Last night certainly was a popcorn experience. Interesting too how the GOP has hung him out to dry since; not only is he no use to them any more, he’s now become a liability, so they’ve discarded him. As a result of last night’s attempted coup, there are four more scenarios (14, 15, 16 and 17) which I’ll edit in shortly.